What a difference an actual election makes. Hillary has just won the New Hampshire primary besting Barack Obama in an historic turnout.
How did the pundits and pollsters get this election so wrong? Here are three possibilities:
- Polls showing a 10 point lead for Obama just prior to today's vote may have been wrong. She'd been ahead all along and the pro-Obama spike never materialized in terms of votes. What the false polls may have accomplished, though, was to make the Clinton camp work that much harder on turn out.
- Independents expected to vote for Obama may have actually voted for John McCain instead.
- It appears that women came out in bigger numbers for numbers for Hillary than was the case in Iowa.
- Hillary's crying bout may have actually helped humanize her. Terry McAuliffe thinks so: “That humanizing moment yesterday. That did it.”
While Obama and Hillary are essentially tied in terms of wins, Hillary is better poised to go the full distance. Hillary has more support among traditional party activists, is better known and will not have to worry about independents voting in democratic primaries.