6.30.2007

Hillary's Strategy: Winning While Being Disliked

Tim Grieve of the WAR ROOM wants to know "Why This Isn't a Problem?"

That is, why MSM dismiss findings such as those of the recent Mason-Dixon Poll which found 52% of Americans would never consider voting for Hillary Clinton for president? It's a good question--especially since that little fact isn't stopping the Clintons from winning anyway.

Fully 60% of American voters in that poll would vote for Obama, Rudy, Thompson or Bloomberg; 59% would consider Edwards; 58% would consider McCain; 57% Biden or Richardson; 56% could vote for Huckabee; and 54% could live with Romney. But only 48% will even consider Hillary.

She also has little support among key subgroups, for example:

- 60% of Independents don't support her
- 56% of men won't vote her
- 47% of women don't want her
- and an astounding 88% of Republicans say they wouldn't even consider her

The result is that Hillary is the only candidate with a negative approval rating. That is, her negatives are higher than her positives by 3 percentage points. The net rating for the others is in the plus double digits. More people dislike her than like her.

However, Hillary can still win. How?

She can win the Democratic nomination with a simply plurality--she doesn't need more than 34% of the votes in a crowded field. And then she can win a plurality in the fall election against a badly splintered GOP that results in a third party bid by a Republican/Conservative.

Sound familiar? It's the way Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996.

However, the truth is that Bill was never as disliked as is Hillary. Even during all of his troubles--personal and political--Bill always maintained a healthy level of support among the voters. Not true for Hillary.

Hillary's real model? Believe it or not--Nixon of 1968 and 1972.

Never much loved, Nixon won twice against a badly divided Democratic party. His first victory was aided by Democrat George Wallace's strong 3rd party bid and the unpopularity of LBJ's Vietnam War. Nixon won a 2nd term by tagging ultra liberal George McGovern as being too radical. It appears that the Clinton's see striking parallels that can be used to their advantage in their '08 quest.

Using so-called "dirty tricks" and running an effort to mobilize the quiet majority, Nixon found a formulate to win. Team Clinton invented today's version of "dirty tricks" which they call the War Room. And, I understand that they're preparing an unprecedented effort to turnout the Democratic version of the silent majority.

(BTW: What splintered the Democratic Party in 1968-72? A hugely expensive war against brown-skinned foreigners--that is, the Viet Cong. What's splintering the Republicans in 2008? A hugely expensive war against brown-skinned foreigners--that is, Iraqi nationalists and Mexican day laborers. Am I wrong?)

Related:
Voters don't care for Clinton.
Hillary 'Milhous' Clinton on Track to Win?
Iraq is like Vietnam!
If '68 is like '08, then who's Nixon?