5.16.2007

An ‘Obama Effect?’

In Will There Be an ‘Obama Effect?’ (NYTimes - 5.16.07), Janet Elder makes the point that in high-profile contests where one of the major party candidates is black, pre-election telephone polls have often been wrong, overstating the strength of the black candidate.

The gap between polls and actual voting behavior has come to be known as the “Bradley effect” or the “Wilder effect” or the “Dinkins effect.”

She wonders if this polling-voting incongruity will also become known as the Obama effect?

Elder then follows her question with this unbelievable statement: It is hard to know, since no one is at all certain what has caused the problem.
Really?

My bet is that any one of the country's 35,000,000 African Americans can tell you precisely why.

I'm guessing Elder is simplying being politically correct here in deciding not to mention the obvious: Racism.

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